Securing the Supply Chain: The Role of OSINT in Logistics

Supply chain operations can be vast. While globalization and digital technologies are making the world a smaller place in many ways, they also increase the number of potential vulnerabilities that security teams and supply chain managers must monitor. Current threats to the logistics sector include climate and weather events, piracy, terrorism, DDoS attacks, malware and data breaches.

The range of potential threats is exacerbated by the vulnerabilities of the supply chain and the sheer size and scope of the operations involved. For example, around 90% of the entirety of global trade flows through only 39 bottleneck regions. An effective attack on any of these 39 traffic-heavy logistics hubs would have far-reaching consequences impacting billions of dollars of trade.

One example is the Hong Kong-Shenzhen freight cluster, a critical gateway for global manufacturing and trade, through which tens of millions of tonnes of container and air freight move annually. Additionally, there are a number of geographic chokepoints, such as the Panama Canal and the Strait of Malacca.

It is no longer merely the threat of attacks to these areas, which could halt a vast amount of freight. Incidents, such as the grounding of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal in 2021 and the drought that restricted movement through the Panama Canal in 2023-24, demonstrate that these geographic chokepoints are increasingly vulnerable.

If this wasn’t enough, digitization has increased the number of threats that logistics companies need to consider. This increase in vulnerability needs to be addressed through effective security measures, such as real-time data collection using Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) software.

How can transport and logistics companies secure their supply chains?

Ensuring secure passage

One of the key concerns – and one of the oldest – that logistics and transport companies have to contend with, is tangible and physical security threats; terrorism and piracy being the obvious examples. The rise in extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and droughts, also places pressure on logistics routes. Organizations need real-time information to carefully and continuously assess the threat level, implications and risks surrounding these physical security concerns.

These analyses help organizations to develop mitigation strategies. They also help to establish contingency plans for worst-case scenarios. Organizations need to be able to adapt and respond quickly to events as risk levels change. Supply chain managers across all industries need to consider higher transportation costs, longer travel times and potential issues in meeting schedules when alternative transportation routes are used.

These strategies depend on continuous visibility of current and emerging threats. Without this response, planning is compromised. Being caught unawares could have far-reaching and even devastating consequences. And, in some cases, business models based on time-critical deliveries may be squeezed out of the market.

Keeping cyberspace safe

Cybersecurity is a concern that should be receiving increasing attention as cybercriminals continue to evolve their tradecraft.

In 2017, a cyberattack cost shipping giant Maersk upwards of US$300 million. A vicious malware called NotPetya took down Maersk’s IT systems. Maersk was handling roughly one container ship into port every 15 minutes. So, it's easy to imagine the logistical nightmare that ensued as the company was forced to turn to manual processes to keep things moving.

The Russian military developed NotPetya to target businesses in Ukraine – but the malware quickly got out of hand. Soon, it was spreading around the world, taking down networks and causing billions of dollars in damage and lost revenue. In this scenario, Maersk was simply collateral damage.

More recently, Expeditors International were affected by a cyberattack that forced them to shut down their operating systems, disrupting their services for more than three weeks. Expeditors later revealed the attack had cost them $60 million in lost revenue, investigation and remediation.

Transportation is already heavily reliant on Information Communication Technology (ICT), with virtual threats growing in frequency and complexity. For this reason, cyber threats are an increasing concern across multiple industries. Additionally, for transportation and logistics, cyberattacks designed to induce physical damage are an increasingly common attack vector.

OSINT software for a more secure future

Some organizations operate with hundreds of individual suppliers. If any supplier is disrupted, consequences across the supply chain could be costly. Expeditors International and Maersk are just two examples of this.

Investing in live threat detection doesn’t just reduce risk; it also keeps operations running smoothly and predictably. When it comes to security and supply chain management, it’s especially important to look at future scenarios and manage security proactively. Reacting to crisis situations is not enough. Companies must find the right combination of preventive and reactive measures to achieve the optimal level of supply chain security.

Executives should also keep an eye on so-called wildcard events. That means examining the potential financial impact, the relative vulnerability of their business model, and their company’s ability to respond to low-probability, high-impact events.

As supply chain threats multiply, staying ahead of the intelligence flood becomes more difficult. Signal’s tools cut through the noise by using AI to perform tasks, such as triaging alerts and providing contextual SITREPs for possible threats. This sort of practical application of AI creates efficiencies within security teams, without compromising the crucial situational awareness needed to keep logistics lines open.

How Signal is already helping secure logistics supply chains

• Signal alerts a customer to a supplier’s merger. They can find new suppliers in a timely fashion, preventing disruption and revenue loss.

• Signal provides data on severe weather warnings that affect multiple suppliers and disrupt transportation routes.

• Confidential data is found for sale on the dark web, allowing the organization to act quickly for threat mitigation.

Operational Awareness for Improved Supply Chain Risk Management

A supply chain risk can vary broadly, from volatile global politics to natural disasters, from terrorism to DDoS attacks or data breaches. A disruption anywhere along the supply chain could have serious ramifications for business continuity potentially costing an organisation millions. Additionally, the size and scale of operations means that there are often numerous vulnerabilities. 

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is an invaluable tool for both security teams and supply chain managers. It allows them to gain oversight over often vast and complex supply chains, monitor risks and threats, and gather real-time data that is essential for coordinating an effective response. 

Many supply chain risks and threats are in association with fears around break downs within logistics operations or supplier disruptions. Additional concerns also relate to financial and legal exposures, uneven market demand for product, mounting competition, and natural disasters.

Protecting Business Continuity from Supply Chain Risks

Even as product complexity expands supply chains continue to stretch into developing countries where labour and natural resources are plenty, but the infrastructure is undeveloped or insufficient. Meanwhile, advanced planning and sourcing practices which aim to maximize efficiency and minimize costs, stretch operations to a point of fragility. 

Any disruption can result in organizations and consumers worldwide feeling the impact via loss of suppliers, delayed or destroyed goods, product release delays, and ultimately, customer dissatisfaction and brand damage.

To mitigate the damage of potential threats, both physical and cyber, specific resources need to be designated with the goal of maintaining business continuity in the face of disruptions. One of the most essential resources for security teams and supply chain managers alike is relevant insights and intelligence to assist in assessing potential supply pitfalls. 

Key Supply Chain Disruptions to Monitor with OSINT

Traffic

Even something as seemingly mundane as traffic can cause havoc with supply chain management as supply chains are heavily reliant on good transportation networks. Security professionals and supply chain managers need to know fast if key transportation networks are endangered.

For example, if a freight hub such as Hong Kong International Airport which sees nearly 3.7 million tons of freight through its gates each year were to encounter a serious disruption the ramifications would be far reaching. It’s not just physical disruptions though that teams need to monitor as cyber attacks can have equally far-reaching consequences.

Weather

It’s hard to predict where and when a tornado, hurricane, severe thunderstorm, or debilitating snowstorm will hit. However, in certain parts of the world such as Southeast Asia, these severe weather events occur more seasonally. 

For example, in 2015, the top 4 typhoon events in Southeast Asia caused an aggregate of over $33.5B in damages, more than 138 days of recovery time, and impacted nearly 7,000 supplier sites. In response to the increased risk of extreme weather events organizations must confront the complexity of their operations and improve visibility to go beyond just their immediate vendors. 

Only when an organisation has a complete picture that incorporates the variety of potential risks and has invested in specific responses and contingency plans can it adapt as needed to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events and maintain strength in the marketplace.

Mergers and acquisitions

A single organisation may work with hundreds of independent suppliers from all over the globe. It’s important to have clear oversight of their operational capabilities as well as retaining an awareness of how global events such as extreme weather or in this scenario a merger or acquisition might affect their output. 

What organisations cannot do is assume the best case scenario. Like other threats mentioned in this article, this supply chain risk is exacerbated by the scope of the operation. A single delayed part, for example, could bring assembly lines to a halt causing a build-up of undelivered orders ultimately resulting in dissatisfied customers and a long-term loss of revenue. 

With potentially hundreds of suppliers and thousands of parts it’s not practical to maintain frequent communications with every single supplier, nor is it possible to manually oversee the entirety of the supply chain. 

Fire and the Unexpected Physical Disruptions

While some events can be predicted and planned against, others can’t. A fire in a warehouse for example. Or as we have seen recently COVID-19 which has caused havoc across supply lines with factories either temporarily shutting down or reducing the scale of their operations with limited workforces.

Such unexpected crises can have a big impact causing costly delays. Organisations need up to date and real-time information on all their respective suppliers if they are to react fast and mitigate the potential financial impact of these supply chain risks.

Cyber Threats

There are multiple threat vectors that cyber attackers could target. And as operations get more complex and they focus increasingly on utilising technology for increased efficiency, these vulnerabilities become progressively more concerning. Attacks could take the form of anything from customer data breach, to leaked information pertaining to sensitive company data or even as in the case of Maersk, a rogue malware completely taking down an organisations IT systems.

Related: Securing the Supply Chain: The Role of OSINT in Logistics

Conclusion

New demands and pressures are constantly stretching supply chains and forcing supply chain managers and security teams to adapt. The stakes are high and security is a critical factor. Major concerns such as an unstable global economy, aggressive market competition, extreme weather conditions, demand volatility, and production failures place revenue growth, reputation and overall business operations at great risk. 

Understanding the nature of potential vulnerabilities and keeping current on disturbances that can impact processes can help teams better handle and mitigate problems related to global supplier concerns, brand protection, and financial risks.

Open Source Intelligence monitoring solutions like Signal enables teams to gain a clear oversight of the entirety of their logistical operations. This means they have details of potential disruptions or cyber-attacks before, or as, they are happening, allowing security teams and supply chain managers to implement their contingency plans in a timely fashion and prevent unnecessary financial losses.